Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 186.082603 219.606174 259.147789 309.694372 373.262514 451.461991 5.563615e+02
2025-10-26 145.150898 185.586332 238.505548 314.441743 423.366636 578.490085 8.248926e+02
2025-11-02 120.555978 162.908433 222.549214 315.703479 463.506561 700.377745 1.135356e+03
2025-11-09 102.101162 143.718962 205.630124 308.868366 486.406859 800.289938 1.454878e+03
2025-11-16 88.645966 128.946861 191.638317 302.039395 505.470175 897.897572 1.819201e+03
2025-11-23 78.162068 116.839805 179.302591 294.554204 520.167214 991.061353 2.227451e+03
2025-11-30 74.650372 115.128108 183.390288 316.465046 596.732095 1242.200338 3.205020e+03
2025-12-07 68.869835 108.759139 178.298138 319.812831 635.818528 1425.342401 4.154173e+03
2025-12-14 64.591609 104.346049 175.908638 327.822023 687.586454 1665.536865 5.551622e+03
2025-12-21 59.868495 98.535235 170.010026 327.209787 718.713283 1865.105970 7.049983e+03
2025-12-28 58.433797 98.480631 175.065623 351.458682 821.196790 2344.736048 1.066789e+04
2026-01-04 56.502158 97.234444 177.518063 370.301897 916.515488 2870.800288 1.584387e+04
2026-01-11 54.106230 94.977843 177.900183 385.265684 1010.193664 3484.680201 2.389754e+04
2026-01-18 51.339678 91.688964 175.650022 393.316216 1087.072417 4109.040998 3.522530e+04
2026-01-25 48.415126 87.756374 171.430930 395.308797 1145.459939 4714.055653 5.059557e+04
2026-02-01 45.060255 82.596740 163.773608 386.306090 1161.693357 5121.545201 6.685677e+04
2026-02-08 42.056442 77.891285 156.591438 377.279006 1175.242661 5541.058262 8.874542e+04
2026-02-15 39.307602 73.478400 149.573062 367.392663 1182.289903 5940.125770 1.170795e+05
2026-02-22 38.992904 74.269265 155.074789 396.388025 1366.092770 7888.883190 2.592200e+05
2026-03-01 37.365837 72.017516 152.828554 400.831643 1445.435005 9190.303375 4.548900e+05
2026-03-08 36.159658 70.593785 152.484307 411.476420 1561.586052 11114.648966 9.612449e+05
2026-03-15 34.520028 68.040702 148.934942 410.662023 1621.144187 12629.983419 1.850449e+06
2026-03-22 34.377484 68.921914 154.497860 443.004071 1881.460811 17478.225207 9.811781e+06